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Consumer confidence and price indices

Zofia Bolkowska, Marek Misiak
2008-11-03
In August 2008, as in the first half of the year and July, consumer prices went up
REKLAMA

In September 2008 the current consumer confidence index, which describes current trends in individual consumption, and the forward-looking index, which describes trends expected in the next months, improved slightly. In August the two indices remained almost unchanged from the previous month. The direction and scale of changes in the two consumer indices indicate that the downward trend in individual consumption as recorded in previous months may be reversed.

In September consumer confidence was propped up by an improved outlook on households’ financial situation in the past 12 months, the country’s economic conditions in the past and next 12 months, households’ potential to make major purchases and their potential to save in the next 12 months. Only the outlook on households’ financial situation in the next 12 months deteriorated.
It is especially worth noting that the outlook on the potential to make major purchases and save
stayed at very high levels and that fears of unemployment stopped growing.

In August 2008, as in the first half of the year and July, consumer prices went up but producer and construction prices decelerated.

According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), in August 2008 consumer prices (CPI) rose by 4.8% year on year. This was mainly caused by rising food, household services (including energy) and transport (including fuel) prices. As a result, CPI inflation overshot the inflation target set by the Monetary Policy Council at 2.5%+- 1 percentage point. Inflation stayed 1.1 percentage points above the upper limit of deviation from the target in June and 1.3 percentage points above the limit in July and August.
Compared to August last year, the highest increase was recorded in prices of household services (8%) and food (6.9%). Prices of transport, health care, education restaurants and hotels were higher by respectively 4.3%, 3.5% and 6.8%. A further considerable decrease was recorded in prices of clothing and footwear.
In August the annual producer price index (PPI) was 2%. A major upward effect came from mining (11.4%), and electricity generation, gas and water supply (9.3%). The average increase in producer prices in the manufacturing sector was 0.4% in August, with producer prices of oil products having increased the fastest in recent months, by around 30%, while prices of most other products were lower than in August 2007.
Despite the fast increase in construction wages, construction prices decelerated from 8.1% in January to 3.9% in August due to a drop in prices of construction materials.

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