The IRG SGH barometer fell 9 points (on a 100-point scale) in the beginning of Q4 as compared to the beginning of Q3 2008. It is 20 points lower than a year ago. According to Adamowicz it is a clear sign of a slowdown, but not of recession. Professor Adamowicz reassures the deceleration of Polish economy is not a result of the global turmoil, but is an effect of natural economic cycles and seasonal factors, which can be easily handled by the economy. ‘If the economic growth of Poland fell to 2%, the fundamentals of our economy would be in danger’ she added. The 2009 economic growth forecast for Poland is above 4%. The authors of the report predict a noticeable deterioration of the economic situation in Poland, especially in construction and the processing industry. Yet, they caution not to confuse the temporary slowdown with a real crisis and to clearly distinguish Poland from other countries in the region, as Hungary, where the fundamentals of the economy are completely different.

The research conducted from October 7 to October 25 – during the time of biggest turmoil and uncertainty on the global markets – also covers the consumer finance market. The results show a discrepancy between the situation of households and their view of the country’s economy. The surveyed households tend to describe their material situation as satisfying, but are very pessimistic about the future of Polish economy.

According to the Institute businesses feel more limited by legal and tax regulations as well as falling demand. IRG SGH economists have also noted an increase in the number of households who have troubles paying their financial obligations. 51.7% of households say they have no problems meeting their financial obligations, but 13.7% (two times more than a year ago) think they won’t be able to meet the deadlines.

Researchers Piotr Białowolski and Sławomir Dudek of IRG SGH have also found that almost 35% of households cannot predict how their financial situation will look in the nearest future, in view of the global turmoil. 55% are afraid it will negatively affect their situation. Only 10% of surveyed Poles think the global crisis won’t have any effect on their personal finances. The general consumer moods are not bad, but no definite forecast can be made at this time. 20% of households think they cannot afford a bank loan and only 4% say they are able to earmark half of their wages for monthly bank payments.