Polish Fin Min expects inflation drop to 3.4%

Poland’s Ministry of Finance has announced that June inflation reached 3.4% y-o-y against 3.6% y-o-y in May. The figure is significantly lower than market expectations.

The Ministry said that inflation growth was enhanced by fuel prices which rose over 6% m-o-m. Food prices which decreased by 1.5% according to the Ministry’s estimates are believed to be the main contributor to the drop in inflation.

A further decline in inflation is expected by the Ministry. It is believed that inflation may drop below 3% in July and should maintain this level with insignificant fluctuation till the end of the year. But according to Millennium Bank analysts their expectations for the nearest months are more pessimistic. (Millennium Bank)

Polish Market

ECONOMIC MONITOR

download pdf

• ● In December 2009 and January 2010, as in previous months in the second half of 2009, the Polish economy stood out against other countries in terms of GDP growth. Poland’s economic growth was higher than projected and higher than in other European countries.
read more »

• In 2009 construction output increased by 3.7%.
read more »

• Retail sales increase in most product groups.
read more »

• On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, stock prices were very volatile in January 2010.
read more »

• At the end of December 2009 the registered unemployment rate (claimant count rate) amounted to 11.9% versus 11.4% in November.
read more »

• At the end of January the president signed the 2010 budget bill into law. The bill was adopted by the parliament on December 18.
read more »

• In the fourth quarter of 2009 the Polish economy turned out to be more resistant to the global crisis than had been projected and than the economies of Polish neighbours, something which boosts optimism in forecasts for 2010 and the next years.
read more »

PODCAST

• Poland and China: two partners unscathed by the crisis

• Polish artist turns around Polish-Jewish stereotypes

• Unconventional natural gas – Poland’s secret weapon

• Shock and outrage at Warsaw underground ‘saucy sheep’ mural

• Gdansk reinvents Elizabethan theatre tradition

• Poland kicks off Chopin Year

COMING UP

Fraud Risk Management >>

WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS

The last portion of macroeconomic data for January will be released on Friday when the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to publish balance of payments figures. We estimate that the current account deficit reached EUR580 million while the consensus of the “Parkiet” daily is EUR614 million. We expect that growth in exports slowed slightly in January to 10.9% y/y. We also predict that imports had already made up for last year’s losses and rose by 7.7% y/y in January.

MARKET INFO