The global crisis has affected the economies of all countries, including Poland. The leasing sector has not avoided the crisis either. As an industry, we felt the first symptoms of the crisis in the second half of 2008. The leasing market reacted to the approaching economic slowdown earlier than other sectors. In the first half of 2008 the leasing market as a whole still grew by 15% but in the second half of the year the growth of the movable property leasing market fell virtually to zero.

The goods vehicle leasing market, which saw drops of 40% in the second half of the year, contributed the most to the slowdown of the whole sector. A shortage of labour, coupled with growing fuel prices and a weakening zloty, meant that transport companies started to lose liquidity and orders. Many important haulage contractors went bankrupt due to the crisis.

It should be stressed that small and medium-sized businesses constitute a majority of the customers in the leasing sector. They react the fastest to any market change. Their first decision is to curb investment. This is proven by surveys conducted by BCC in the second half of 2008. The surveys showed that businesses postponed decisions to invest because of the uncertain situation on the market. The collapse of investment in the small and medium enterprise sector affected the performance of the leasing industry.

After a very successful 2007, when the sector had recorded growth of over 50%, we saw a sharp slowdown in 2008 to around 1% year on year. In the first half of 2009 the drops were much larger. In the first and second quarter of the year the movable property leasing market recorded drops of 40%, with all segments of the market affected. The goods vehicle leasing market was again hit the hardest. In the first half of 2009 decreases in the value of the vehicles leased exceeded 65%.

Smaller drops were registered in the machine and IT sectors. The reason is that leasing companies are more interested in deals with a higher unit value. In the first half of 2009 the average value of transactions in the two segments rose by 21% year on year. The value of transactions in the light vehicle sector was also decreasing from quarter to quarter – the drops went down from -29% y/y in the first quarter to -36% y/y in the second quarter.

The leasing sector is called a barometer of the Polish economy. We are the first to notice signs of slowdown and the first to notice signs of revival. In the fourth quarter of 2009 we saw the first signs of revival, with a slowdown in sales drops in the sector. The first boosts in demand for investment goods generated by small and medium-sized businesses appeared in the last quarter of last year. Investments made by small and medium-sized businesses and large investments generated by the public sector and structural funds helped to offset much of the drops in turnover on the leasing market. In 2010 turnover on the leasing market will be growing slowly but steadily.

In think the public sector will be a promising market for the leasing industry this year. Rail transport projects and projects associated with the UEFA Euro 2012 championship will create demand for investment credit and leasing. Leasing market analysts predict that in 2010 we should record growth of around 10% year on year on the movable property and real estate leasing markets. Additionally, there is every indication that in the second half of this year private businesses will also start investing, which will boost the 2010 results of the leasing sector. But since, as we think, capacity utilisation is relatively low now, a significant acceleration can only be expected in 2011. The situation of the leasing market and sales to be generated by the sector in 2010 will depend on how fast the Polish and European economies will be coming out of the crisis.