Estimated Polish budget realization after February

The estimated budget realization shows that the deficit reached PLN 16.7 billion as compared with PLN 4.8 billion in January, Millennium Bank analysts inform.

Deputy Finance Minister Elżbieta Suchocka-Roguska said earlier that the deficit is in line with the planned schedule. Poland’s budget spending reached 18.3%, budget income reached 15.4% and budget deficit widened in February to 32.1% of the annual target. The high result was caused by transferring almost PLN 10 billion in form of subsidies for the Social Insurance Fund (FUS). After the first two months of 2010, tax and non-tax income was lower by 9.8% than a year earlier and the drop was mainly noted in indirect taxes. Revenue from income tax from legal entities was by 23% higher than a year ago which confirms the good financial situation of companies.

Polish Market

ECONOMIC MONITOR

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• ● In December 2009 and January 2010, as in previous months in the second half of 2009, the Polish economy stood out against other countries in terms of GDP growth. Poland’s economic growth was higher than projected and higher than in other European countries.
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• In 2009 construction output increased by 3.7%.
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• Retail sales increase in most product groups.
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• On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, stock prices were very volatile in January 2010.
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• At the end of December 2009 the registered unemployment rate (claimant count rate) amounted to 11.9% versus 11.4% in November.
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• At the end of January the president signed the 2010 budget bill into law. The bill was adopted by the parliament on December 18.
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• In the fourth quarter of 2009 the Polish economy turned out to be more resistant to the global crisis than had been projected and than the economies of Polish neighbours, something which boosts optimism in forecasts for 2010 and the next years.
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WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS

Retail sales up again in June
Retail sales growth in nominal terms accelerated in June to 6.4% y-o-y from 4.3% y-o-y in May. The increase was higher than expected. In real terms, retail sales growth accelerated to 4.5% y-o-y from 2.0% y-o-y. June was a consecutive month with retail sales figures stronger than expected, which indicates that consumption is recovering after it slowed significantly at the beginning of the year. Private consumption is driven by an improvement on the labour market coupled with a rise in disposable incomes. In Q2 2010 retail sales grew by around 3% y-o-y in nominal terms and around 1% y-o-y in real terms. On the basis of retail sales and industrial production data, it can be estimated that the GDP growth rate was close to 3%.

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